Unit 5 Research Designs and Sampling, Chapter 10 Delphi Studies

Wildemuth chapter 10

Oracle: something that is foretold by or as if by supernatural means: divination, prophecy, soothsaying, fitness a nation, vision from rosin budgets to the new thesauruses third edition


Introduction definition name for this Oracle because primarily used in forecasting future events based on the opinion of experts
technique for gleaning and refining the subject of input from a group of people, usually experts, in an attempt to achieve consistence consensus about some aspect of the present or the future

Method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals as a whole to deal with the complex problem
some assessment of the group judgment or view/some opportunity for individual to rape revise views and some degree of anonymity for the individual responses

Not used outside the defense community and no till 1964
forecasting future events has been the major application/versatile research tool that can be used in a bright variety of situations

Characteristics:
allows more people to participate in the study that can effectively interact face-to-face – controls the communication flow and helps the group to stay focused
allows participants from a diverse background and with diverse or opposing views to interact without being concerned about reactions
influences of dominant individuals are avoided – strength of personality eloquence and other personal influential factors much less physical visible because of anonymity
group pressure for conformity is avoided – participants exempted from the direct pressure to conform to majority opinions
effects of feelings and information communicated through body language – tone of voice, gestures, or local buyer minimized./Without seeing each other face-to-face not affected by nonverbal communications
timing costs are reduced – frequent face-to-face meetings are costly and time-consuming/less time and costs are needed

Criticism: net
lack of statistical test
lack of democratic demographic description of participants
selection of experts
lack of exploratory explanatory quality
Degree of Anna and Deputy

Things to avoid
imposing your own preconceptions
in a adequately summarizing and presenting group response
not ensuring common interpretation of the evaluation scales
ignoring rather than exploring disagreements – discouraged it dissenters dropout and artificial consensus is generated
underestimating demand nature of a multi-round Delphi study and not properly compensating the participants
ignoring missed understandings that may arise from differences in language and logic – participants come from diverse cultural backgrounds

Most appropriate situations with the truth of the matter cannot be known to direct observation
leverage the expertise of people who are thought about a particular issue or problem – seeking to find consensus
careful selection of panelists and iterative surveying of other opinions with feedback